Wk4 As a project management professional, it is important for you to be able to review numbers and report on what they are saying. It is also important for

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As a project management professional, it is important for you to be able to review numbers and report on what they are saying. It is also important for you to be able to use software that helps you keep timelines and keep the project running on time and smoothly. This assignment will continue to help prepare you for your responsibilities.

You are a project manager and you successfully completed the project from Weeks 2 and 3. A program manager from another division is aware of your familiarity and success with the Technology Refresh Project. He has asked you to perform a schedule risk analysis on a different Technology Refresh Project, i.e., the Technology Refresh (Version B) Project, which is based on your project from Weeks 2 and 3. In fact, the project tasks are the same, only the durations and the critical paths are different (note: your project files from Week 2 and Week 3 are not relevant to this assignment).

Perform a schedule risk analysis for the Technology Refresh (Version B) Project by completing the following:

Open “Topic 4 Project Assessment Problems TEMPLATE.” Take note of the project information, including the expected durations and the tasks that are on the critical path.

Calculate the following;

  1. The expected project finish time.
  2. The variances for the applicable tasks.
  3. The total critical path variance.
  4. The total critical path standard deviation.

The customer has seen the Technology Refresh (Version B) project schedule and the expected project finish time. However, the customer is concerned about the schedule risk of the project. Therefore, he wishes to know the following (i.e., determine the following):

  1. The probability of finishing the project in 287 days.
  2. The probability of finishing the project in 273 days.

Hints:

  1. If you wish to solve part 3 using the Z-value approach, refer to the Standard Normal Cumulative Probability Table at math.bgu.ac, (2014).
  2. Note also that Microsoft Excel’s NORM.DIST function can be used to determine the probabilities in part 3, which does require use of the Z-Table.

Project Risk

MGT 640 Topic 4, Project Risk Assessment Problems SOLUTION
ID Task Optimistic Duration (days) Most Likely Duration (days) Pessimistic Duration (days) PERT Expected Duration (days) Critical Path Variance
1 TECHNOLOGY REFRESH (VERSION B) PROJECT
2 Initiating
3 Meet with key stakeholders 2 3 12 4
4 Finalize statement of work 2 10 15 10
5 Secure project team leads 2 2 4 2
6 Finalize stakeholder register 2 10 13 9
7 Develop project charter 2 5 17 7
8 Finalize project charter 2 4 8 4
9 Planning
10 Scope Planning
11 Requirements
12 Develop/finalize functional requirements 10 18 28 18
13 Develop/finalize hardware requirements 12 16 18 16
14 Develop/finalize software requirements 10 16 30 17
15 Develop/finalize requirements traceability matrix 11 14 28 16
16 Finalize project deliverables 2 2 3 2
17 Develop scope statement 4 9 10 8
18 Finalize/Update WBS 2 3 5 3
19 Schedule (Time) and Cost Planning
20 Finalize hardware/software costs 2 4 5 4
21 Update activities and duration estimates 6 12 14 11
22 Human Resource Planning
23 Finalize resource requirements 6 10 14 10
24 Finalize project costs 4 11 19 11
25 Identify training requirements 2 4 5 4
26 Complete training activities 6 12 14 11
27 Quality Planning
28 Determine impacted quality processes 2 3 4 3
29 Finalize quality management plan 2 10 18 10
30 Risk Planning
31 Update project risks 3 6 12 7
32 Draft risk register 2 3 8 4
33 Finalize risk management plan 2 4 7 4
34 Finalize Project Plan
35 Finalize communications management plan 2 3 4 3
36 Finalize procurement management plan 2 6 14 7
37 Finalize stakeholder management plan 2 2 5 3
38 Finalize project schedule/cost baseline 2 13 19 12
39 Finalize project plan 2 5 16 6
40 Obtain approval for project plan 2 4 7 4
41 Executing
42 Hardware
43 Procure hardware from suppliers 10 24 32 23
44 Software
45 Obtain software OS licenses 6 11 20 12
46 Obtain software application licenses 6 8 17 9
47 Pilot Testing
48 Setup test area 1 2 2 2
49 Load software onto pilot machines 4 6 8 6
50 Validate functionality 3 6 8 6
51 Deployment
52 Configure production hardware 10 25 33 24
53 Deploy production hardware 11 19 23 18
54 Load software to deployed hardware 12 17 19 17
55 Testing
56 Validate startup on deployed hardware 4 9 18 10
57 Perform OS testing 4 8 17 9
58 Perform application testing 4 19 28 18
59 Obtain formal sign-off from users 6 17 24 16
60 Monitoring and Controlling
61 Formal Customer Review 1
62 Hold formal customer review after project plan approval 1 3 4 3
63 Update project plan 4 10 20 11
64 Formal Customer Review 2
65 Obtain updates regarding key deliverables from project team 5 18 22 17
66 Hold formal customer review after pilot testing 5 7 11 7
67 Update project plan 4 8 15 9
68 Closing
69 External
70 Finalize procurement with suppliers 5 18 24 17
71 Customer Approval
72 Hold final customer review 1 2 2 2
73 Prepare/submit final customer report 3 6 10 6
74 Audit against contractual deliverables 3 5 8 5
75 Obtain final customer approval 2 3 4 3
76 Internal
77 Hold lessons learned meeting 1 1 1 1
78 Update final internal report 4 6 12 7
79 Hold project team celebration event 1 1 2 1
Expected Project Finish Time: Total Critical Path Variance: days
days
Total Critical Path Standard Deviation: days
Probability of finishing the project in 287 days is
or
%
Probability of finishing the project in 273 days is
or
%

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